How to read Polymarket odds
Filed July 7, 2026 · Last updated July 2026 · The Cent Signals desk
The short answer
A Polymarket price is the cost of one YES or NO share, quoted in cents from about 1¢ to 99¢, and it reads directly as the market's implied probability: a 65¢ share means a roughly 65 percent implied chance. The same price converts with simple arithmetic into the decimal, American, and fractional odds a sportsbook would show. Cent Signals is a free, independent desk that tracks Polymarket activity and explains how prediction markets price probability, not trading advice.
A Polymarket price is a probability in cents
Every outcome on Polymarket trades as a share that pays one dollar if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not. A share like that is worth its probability times one dollar, so the price in cents reads straight off as an implied percentage. A YES share at 60¢ is the market pricing the outcome at about a 60 percent chance; 8¢ is about 8 percent; 92¢ is about 92 percent. On this site prices are shown in cents as of the latest snapshot, so no conversion is needed to get the probability. For the longer treatment of what that number captures and what it leaves out, see how to read implied probability on Polymarket.
Because YES and NO are complementary, their prices sum to about one dollar. When YES trades near 65¢, NO trades near 35¢. The small residual gap that sometimes appears reflects the bid-ask spread and fees, not a hidden signal. That is the whole idea behind reading Polymarket odds: the price is the probability, and everything else is just re-expressing that probability in another set of units.
Converting a price into decimal, American, and fractional odds
Readers who arrive from a sportsbook are used to decimal, American, or fractional odds rather than a cents price. Each format is the same implied probability written a different way, and the conversions are arithmetic:
- Decimal oddsare one divided by the price read as a probability. A 50¢ price is 1 / 0.50 = 2.00; a 25¢ price is 1 / 0.25 = 4.00. The decimal figure is the total return per one dollar staked, including the stake.
- American oddsfor a favorite priced above 50¢ are minus the probability divided by one minus the probability, times one hundred. A 75¢ price gives -(0.75 / 0.25) x 100 = -300. For a long-odds outcome below 50¢ the formula flips to one minus the probability over the probability, times one hundred: a 25¢ price gives (0.75 / 0.25) x 100 = +300.
- Fractional oddsare the decimal figure minus one, written as a fraction. A 50¢ price (decimal 2.00) is 1/1, or evens; a 40¢ price (decimal 2.50) is 3/2. Fractional odds describe profit relative to stake rather than total return.
One structural difference is worth noting. A sportsbook builds a margin into its odds, so the implied probabilities across every outcome sum to more than one hundred percent. On Polymarket the YES and NO prices sum to about one dollar, so the built-in overround is far smaller, and what separates the two sides is mainly the spread. For how that spread and the taker fee actually land, see how spreads and fees affect profit.
Polymarket price to odds conversion table
The table maps common Polymarket prices onto the implied probability and the decimal and American odds formats a sportsbook would quote for the same chance. The figures are rounded to the nearest standard quote.
| Price (per share) | Implied probability | Decimal odds | American odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 10% | 10.00 | +900 |
| 20¢ | 20% | 5.00 | +400 |
| 25¢ | 25% | 4.00 | +300 |
| 40¢ | 40% | 2.50 | +150 |
| 50¢ | 50% | 2.00 | +100 (even) |
| 60¢ | 60% | 1.67 | -150 |
| 75¢ | 75% | 1.33 | -300 |
| 90¢ | 90% | 1.11 | -900 |
You can read any live market the same way. On the market covering whether the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points after the July 2026 meeting, the YES price in cents is the implied probability, and the table above turns it into the decimal or American figure if that is the unit you think in. Browse more on the markets worth a second look index.
How much weight a price deserves
The conversion is exact, but the probability behind it is only as solid as the market underneath. A price carries more information when more volume and deeper liquidity stand behind it, because a thinly traded market can show a number that a single small order would move. Reading the odds without reading the volume and liquidity behind them is how a tidy-looking number misleads. A 5¢ price on a busy, deep market and a 5¢ price on a near-empty one convert to the same +1900 in American odds, but they do not deserve the same trust.
Time matters too. As a market nears its resolution date, the price tends to drift toward zero or one, so the odds you read today are a snapshot of a moving figure rather than a fixed line. Read the price, read the question, weigh the volume and the time remaining, and treat the converted odds as a description of the market, not a call to act.
Frequently asked questions
How do you read Polymarket odds?
Read the price. Each outcome on Polymarket trades as a share priced between about one cent and ninety-nine cents, and that price is the market's implied probability. A share at 65 cents reads as a roughly 65 percent implied chance; a share at 8 cents reads as about 8 percent. The winning side pays one dollar per share at resolution and the other side pays nothing, so the price is simply the probability expressed in cents.
What does a 65 cent price mean on Polymarket?
A 65 cent price means the market is pricing that outcome at roughly a 65 percent implied probability as of the latest snapshot. In the odds formats sportsbooks use, the same 65 cent price is about 1.54 in decimal odds and about -186 in American odds. It is a reading of how the crowd is pricing the outcome, weighted by how much traders are staking, not a forecast from Cent Signals.
How do you convert Polymarket prices to American odds?
Start from the price as a probability. For a favorite priced above 50 cents, American odds are minus the price divided by one minus the price, times one hundred: a 75 cent price gives -(0.75 / 0.25) x 100 = -300. For a long-odds outcome priced below 50 cents, American odds are one minus the price divided by the price, times one hundred: a 25 cent price gives (0.75 / 0.25) x 100 = +300. A 50 cent price is even money, quoted +100.
Why do the YES and NO prices add up to about a dollar?
Because YES and NO are complementary outcomes: one of them happens. A pair of shares that together pay one dollar at resolution is worth about one dollar now, so if YES trades near 60 cents, NO trades near 40 cents. The small gap that sometimes remains reflects the bid-ask spread and any fees rather than a deeper meaning.
Are Polymarket odds the same as sportsbook odds?
They describe the same idea, an implied probability, in different units. A sportsbook quotes decimal, American, or fractional odds and builds in a margin, or vig, so the implied probabilities across all outcomes sum to more than one hundred percent. A Polymarket price is a cents-per-share figure whose YES and NO sides sum to about one dollar, and it moves continuously as people trade. Converting between the two is arithmetic, shown in the table above.
Does Cent Signals give betting advice on these odds?
No. Cent Signals is an independent editorial desk that reads public Polymarket prices, volume, liquidity, and wallet activity and explains what the figures describe. It converts and explains odds as observations of public data. It does not accept orders, custody funds, route trades, or tell anyone what position to take, and nothing on it is advice.
Related reading
This explainer is editorial reference about how to read and convert public prediction-market prices. It is not financial advice, a tip, or a recommendation to take any position, and Cent Signals does not facilitate trades. For how the Polymarket figures on this site are collected, see the methodology page.