Cent Signals
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic pre…YES 0.7¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?YES 30.5¢▲1Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister…YES 0.2¢Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic pres…YES 0.4¢Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?YES 3.9¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 20…YES 5.5¢Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic pr…YES 0.7¢Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister…YES 0.3¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates a…YES 74.2¢▼1Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Ele…YES 0.7¢Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presid…YES 0.7¢Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?YES 10.0¢Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by J…YES 0.8¢Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps…YES 24.8¢▲1

Methodology

This page explains, in plain terms, how Cent Signals is put together. It covers where the numbers come from, how the trader leaderboard is assembled, how the mispricing heuristic decides which markets are worth a second look, how often everything refreshes, and the limitations you should keep in mind when reading any figure on this site. The short version: everything here is built from public data and presented as an observation, never as guidance.

Data sources

All data on this site is drawn from Polymarket's public interfaces. Market metadata, such as a market's question, outcomes, current prices, and volume, comes from the public Gamma API. Position and trade activity comes from the public data API. Neither requires authentication, an account, or a private key, because both surface information that is already public, much of it settling on a public blockchain.

We do not connect to any private feed, and we hold no special access. Anything you see here, you could in principle reconstruct yourself from the same public endpoints. We pull politely, with a deliberate pause between requests so as not to strain the upstream services.

How the trader leaderboard is built

The leaderboard is an ordered view of wallet addresses that have transacted large notional amounts on Polymarket. For each wallet we read publicly visible figures: traded volume, the positions currently open, and realized profit and loss where the public data exposes it. These come from the same public on-chain and public-API records that anyone can query.

Wallets are ranked primarily by traded volume, which is simply a measure of how much activity an address has moved through the platform. A wallet appearing near the top means it has been active at scale; it does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results. We identify wallets only by their public addresses and the display names Polymarket itself has already published. We do not attempt to tie an address to a real-world person.

How the realized-profit ranking is built

Alongside the volume ranking, the leaderboard offers a Realized profit view. It orders wallets by realized profit and loss as reported by Polymarket, summed across the positions currently visible for each wallet through the public positions endpoint. We label this figure as Polymarket-reported because it is Polymarket's own calculation, not ours. For each scored wallet we also record a hit rate, the share of its resolved visible positions that finished in the money, and a longshot-exposure share, the fraction of its mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents. A wallet is tagged longshot-heavy when that share is at least one half.

We cannot read positions for every one of the millions of wallets on Polymarket, so we score a bounded candidate pool: the most active large-notional wallets in the trade history we have mirrored. This is a deliberate, disclosed selection. It means the realized-profit view describes the active large-notional set we observe, not the entire population, and a profitable wallet that we have not scored will not appear. This ranking exists because the research literature finds that transacted volume by itself is not skill: in a study of 67 billion dollars of Polymarket volume, the top one percent of users captured about 76.5 percent of all gains while roughly 69 percent of users ended with a loss, and the strongest predictor of profit was liquidity provision rather than the size of a position.

Two limits matter most here. First, the positions endpoint exposes positions that are currently visible, so a wallet that has fully exited and redeemed may show little or nothing, which understates its history. Second, we cannot yet measure a wallet's maker share, the degree to which it provides liquidity with resting limit orders rather than taking it with market orders. The public trade feed shows price and side but does not label maker and taker roles per fill; measuring that requires on-chain order-fill data we do not currently ingest. We flag this openly so the ranking is not read as more complete than it is.

How the mispricing heuristic works

A subset of markets is flagged as worth a second look. This happens when the current price diverges from a simple sanity heuristic. The heuristic is deliberately plain. It compares a market's present price against straightforward reference points such as how close the market is to its resolution date, how active trading still is, and how far the price sits into either tail of the range. When a market trades deep toward one outcome while volume remains busy and resolution is near, the heuristic notes the combination as unusual.

That is the whole of it. The heuristic does not model the underlying event, read the news, or estimate a fair price. It surfaces patterns in the public price and volume data that a reader might find interesting enough to examine more closely. Each flagged entry carries a short editorial rationale describing what the heuristic observed, written to report the observation and nothing more. A flag is an invitation to look, not a statement that the market is wrong.

Refresh cadence

The site renders from a snapshot of the public data rather than querying live on every page view. That snapshot is refreshed periodically, on a roughly daily or on-demand basis, after which the site is rebuilt so the pages reflect the latest pull. Because of this design, every figure you read is as of the most recent snapshot, not the current second. Prices and positions on Polymarket move continuously, so the live platform may already show different numbers than the ones captured here.

Limitations

  • Data lag. Everything is shown as of the last snapshot. Live prices, volumes, and positions will differ from what is displayed here, sometimes substantially.
  • Public data only.We see what the public APIs and the public chain expose. We have no insight into anyone's reasoning, off-platform activity, or intentions.
  • A heuristic is not a model. The mispricing flag is a simple sanity check, not a valuation. It can flag markets that are priced perfectly sensibly and miss ones that are not.
  • Realized profit is partial.The Realized profit ranking covers only a scored subset of active large-notional wallets, uses Polymarket's own reported figure over currently visible positions, and cannot yet account for liquidity provision (maker share). Treat it as a partial view, not a full accounting.
  • A rolling trade window.Our mirrored trade history is a rolling recent window and retains larger trades, so figures derived from it, including longshot exposure, are measured over that window rather than a wallet's entire history.
  • Not advice. Nothing on this site is financial advice, a tip, a recommendation, or an offer of any kind. It is editorial observation of public data.
  • No guarantees. Data can be incomplete, delayed, or wrong upstream. We make no warranty as to accuracy or completeness, and past activity says nothing about future outcomes.

If you spot a figure that looks off, the editorial desk welcomes corrections. Read the data, read the market, and form your own view.