Markets worth a second look
Each entry below is a market our heuristic flagged for further reading. The rationale describes why it caught our eye. None of this is a recommendation to trade. Read carefully and form your own view. New here? How to tell if a market looks mispriced walks through the free checks behind these flags.
Snapshot Jul 24, 2026 · 162 signals
What changed since the last snapshot
Markets whose YES price moved the most since the previous snapshot window. These are observations of how the crowd repriced each question, not a view on where any price should be.
Biggest moves this week
Largest YES-price change over the past week
trades at 70 cents on YES, up from 11 cents a week ago
trades at 39 cents on YES, down from 79 cents a week ago
trades at 4 cents on YES, down from 42 cents a week ago
trades at 27 cents on YES, down from 57 cents a week ago
trades at 74 cents on YES, up from 44 cents a week ago
Biggest moves today
Largest YES-price change over the past day
trades at 37 cents on YES, up from 16 cents a day ago
trades at 51 cents on YES, down from 68 cents a day ago
trades at 19 cents on YES, down from 34 cents a day ago
trades at 52 cents on YES, down from 67 cents a day ago
trades at 74 cents on YES, up from 60 cents a day ago
Markets flagged by our heuristic
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
YES 10.0¢Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 22973K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
YES 9.7¢Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 413K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
YES 9.5¢Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2823K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
YES 9.5¢Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 55K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1789K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1333K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?
YES 0.6¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 637K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 52391K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 31851K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 25779K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 25395K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 17232K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 870K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 345K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
YES 9.3¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2339K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 9.3¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 12621K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?
YES 99.3¢Market trades 99¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 202K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
YES 0.8¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 20144K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
YES 0.8¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 6059K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?
YES 0.8¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 84K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 24?
YES 0.8¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 42K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
YES 99.2¢Market trades 99¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 325K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 11874K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 939K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 15113K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 9201K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 644K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 480K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 197K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 1.0¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 4509K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 10174K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 5214K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 726K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 642K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 544K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2163K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 464K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 29K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
YES 8.8¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 590K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
YES 1.3¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 645K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
YES 1.4¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1157K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
YES 1.4¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 497K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
YES 8.6¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 251K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
YES 1.4¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 6525K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 24?
YES 98.6¢Market trades 99¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 41K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?
YES 1.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 73K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
YES 1.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 51K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 25?
YES 1.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 32K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 17625K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2775K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 568K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 396K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 286K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?
YES 1.5¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 51K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 38K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 1.6¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1302K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 1.6¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 598K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
YES 98.4¢Market trades 98¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 861K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?
YES 98.4¢Market trades 98¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 99K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
YES 1.7¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 46K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 1.8¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 5104K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
YES 1.8¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1426K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
YES 1.9¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 776K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 1.9¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 624K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 1.9¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 546K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 20-26?
YES 1.9¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 28K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?
YES 2.0¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 268K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
YES 8.0¢Market trades 8¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 219K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 2.1¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 16795K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
YES 7.9¢Market trades 8¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 187K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
YES 2.1¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 269K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
YES 2.1¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 41K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 2.2¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 772K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
YES 2.3¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 179K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 20-26?
YES 2.4¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 47K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?
YES 2.4¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 38K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Trump out as President before 2027?
YES 7.5¢Market trades 8¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 10241K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
YES 7.5¢Market trades 8¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 58K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?
YES 92.5¢Market trades 93¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 87K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?
YES 2.5¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 376K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
YES 2.6¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 517K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?
YES 7.3¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1025K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
YES 2.8¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 576K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
YES 7.2¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 198K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?
YES 2.9¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 931K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
YES 2.9¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 902K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 2.9¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 617K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 7.0¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 12608K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 6.9¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 519K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?
YES 3.1¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 466K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
YES 3.2¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1123K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 3.3¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1244K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
YES 3.4¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 4388K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?
YES 6.6¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 200K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 3.5¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 348K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
YES 6.5¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2055K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
YES 3.5¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 42K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
YES 3.6¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1077K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 3.6¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 467K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 3.7¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1437K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
YES 6.3¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 91K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
YES 3.8¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1722K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
YES 3.9¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 38967K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
YES 6.1¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 88K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
YES 4.2¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 4139K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 95.8¢Market trades 96¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 704K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
YES 4.4¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1057K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
YES 4.5¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1071K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?
YES 4.5¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1557K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?
YES 94.5¢Market trades 95¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 128K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
YES 5.5¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 36202K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
YES 5.5¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1507K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
YES 5.5¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 394K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
YES 5.5¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 85K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YES 5.5¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 4677K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
YES 5.5¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 68K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 4.6¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 540K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?
YES 4.7¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 328K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
YES 5.3¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 37K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Iran leadership change by July 31?
YES 4.8¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 783K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
YES 4.9¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 11514K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?
YES 94.8¢Market trades 95¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 58K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
YES 4.9¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1695K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?
YES 94.9¢Market trades 95¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 335K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 30.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
YES 74.2¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
YES 24.8¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 13.9¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 11.6¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 60.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES 51.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
YES 46.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
YES 43.7¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (4× yes, 3× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
YES 17.9¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (4× yes, 3× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
YES 25.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (4× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Iran leadership change by December 31?
YES 27.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 40.9¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
YES 41.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 23.4¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
YES 19.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 2× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
YES 70.2¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (4× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
YES 21.3¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 24?
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 24?
YES 99.7¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-07-23?
YES 100.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (4× yes, 3× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 24?
YES 0.4¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
YES 23.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France?
YES 5.0¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 86K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
YES 0.4¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 24?
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
CA Boca Juniors vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (4× under). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
CS Herediano vs. Puntarenas FC: O/U 4.5
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× under). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Puntarenas FC win on 2026-07-23?
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw?
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes, 3× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will CS Herediano win on 2026-07-23?
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova
YES 62.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (6× marie bouzkova, 3× tereza valentova). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
CS Herediano vs. Puntarenas FC: O/U 2.5
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× under, 1× over). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
CS Herediano vs. Puntarenas FC: O/U 3.5
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× under). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-07-23?
YES 100.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
YES 3.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× up, 2× down). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5
YES 100.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× over, 1× under). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.