Snapshot filed 24 Jul 2026 · 80 traders · 400 markets · 162 signals
Who actually wins on Polymarket, and which markets look off.
Cent Signals is an editorial tracker. We watch publicly available on-chain activity on Polymarket and surface two things: the traders who keep coming out ahead, and the markets where the current price looks worth a second look against simple sanity heuristics. Data, not advice.
Who is actually profitable, not just active
Trading a lot is not the same as trading well. Research on $67 billion of Polymarket volume found that the top 1% of users captured about 76.5% of all gains while most accounts ended down, and that liquidity provision, not big orders, best separated the winners. So alongside volume, we rank wallets by realized profit as reported by Polymarket, and we publish the figures on how concentrated those gains are.
Top traders by volume
Wallets we are tracking, ranked by traded volume across the snapshot.
Markets worth a second look
Markets where current pricing diverges meaningfully from our simple sanity heuristic. Editorial flags, not calls.
Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 22973K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 413K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2823K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 55K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1789K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
New to prediction markets? Start here
Plain-language explainers on how Polymarket prices probability and how to read the public figures on this site.
Polymarket sets its deposit floor per blockchain rather than as one figure, and a second, unrelated floor governs orders. Covers what we read from the live bridge endpoint on July 27, 2026, where 221 supported assets across 13 chains carried just three minimums ($2 on ten chains, $5 on Ethereum, $7 on Bitcoin and Tron), why Polymarket's own documentation table and help center article state different numbers for the same chains on the same day, the uniform 5-share order minimum we found on all 2,086 open order-book markets, and why a share-denominated floor costs a median of $2.50 but under a dollar on one market in seven. Editorial, not advice.
Slippage is the gap between the quoted price and the average price an order actually fills at, and it follows from the shape of the resting order book rather than from any charge. Covers how an order walks the book, why slippage, the spread, and the 2026 taker fee are three separate costs, the price bounds on each documented order type, and what we measured walking three live Polymarket books on July 26, 2026: about $103,000 of asks within a cent of the touch on one market against $62 on another with a similar-looking quote. Editorial, not advice.
Liquidity rewards are a daily USDC pool paid out to the resting limit orders sitting closest to a market's midpoint, scored every minute by the published quadratic formula and settled at midnight UTC with a $1 floor. Covers the scoring maths, max spread and minimum size, the two-sided rule at price extremes, why the program is not the same thing as the 2026 maker rebates funded from taker fees, and what we found reading reward parameters live for 92 markets on July 25, 2026: 35 with a funded pool of a dollar a day or more, a median pool of $150 a day, and no pool at all on the five largest liquidity figures in the sample. Editorial, not advice.
Open interest is the value of positions still held, so unlike cumulative volume it can fall and it hits zero at resolution. Covers how it differs from volume and liquidity, the dated public figures from the $1.066bn February 2026 milestone to the $1.48bn record in the week ending June 15, 2026, and the World Cup stretch where Polymarket volume rose about 300 percent while its open interest stayed flat. Editorial, not advice.
What this site is, and is not
It is
- · A read-only view of public Polymarket data.
- · Editorial summaries of who is trading what, and where prices look unusual.
- · A way to research before forming your own views.
It is not
- · A trading platform. We do not accept orders or hold funds.
- · Financial advice. Nothing here is a tip or a position.
- · A copy-trade tool. Past activity is not predictive.