Who actually wins on Polymarket, and which markets look off.

Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on $270.3K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.

Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on $58.3K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.

Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on $2.12M in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.

Market trades 99¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on $128.3K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.

Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on $18.73M in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.

There is no single figure for how automated Polymarket is, because the answer changes with the size of the market. A CNBC analysis of closed markets from 2021 through May 2026 found that high-frequency wallets supplied over 80% of volume in markets under $10,000, a band covering roughly 70% of all closed markets, while the profit sat in the larger contracts. What the threshold captures, why the venue attracts automation, and what our own snapshot can see. Description of the record, never advice.

A data-led answer to why Polymarket Yes and No prices look like they should not sum to 100, and why on a binary market they always do. Separates the four different numbers people call the Polymarket price: the displayed pair, which is one value and its complement and summed to exactly 1.0000 across all 400 markets in our July 31, 2026 snapshot; the two independent order books underneath, where spreads push the asks above a dollar and the bids below it; multi-outcome fields, where each leg carries its own book and only an exhaustive, fully visible set carries any guarantee; and executed trade prices, where the drift is real. Covers the conditional token split and merge mechanism that fixes a full set at one dollar, and the AFT 2025 study of 86 million executed bids that found 7,051 of 17,200 conditions off by more than two cents at some point, with roughly 39.6 million dollars captured in a year and about 1 percent of detected election-period gaps acted on at all. Editorial, not advice.

A plain answer to whether insider trading is allowed on Polymarket, separating three layers that get confused with each other: the platform rulebook, the Commodity Exchange Act, and the federal criminal statutes. Covers the market integrity rules Polymarket published on March 20, 2026 across both its DeFi platform and its CFTC-regulated US exchange, the parallel Kalshi rules that bar anyone in a position to influence an outcome, the CFTC's February 25, 2026 advisory and the two exchange enforcement actions behind it, and the April 23, 2026 indictment and civil action over classified information about a military operation in Venezuela. Explains the point most coverage misses, that CFTC Rule 180.1 is not a parity-of-information rule and a breach of duty is what turns nonpublic information into fraud, plus the STOCK Act provisions that bind federal officials, the Second Circuit decisions that complicate wire fraud theories, and why on-chain settlement makes the activity auditable after the fact. Editorial, not advice.

A plain answer to what happens when a Polymarket market is cancelled: nothing like the void-and-refund people expect. Separates the four endings that get filed under the same word, a normal resolution against the market rules, a fifty-fifty result when neither outcome applies and every share on both sides redeems at fifty cents, a mid-life rules clarification that clears the order book without touching positions, and the rare discretionary refund that happens off-chain when a market was posted with faulty rules. Explains why refunding at entry price is a myth that several published guides repeat, why most called-off real-world events are already covered by the market rules text and never reach the oracle edge case, and how long collateral stays locked while a disputed question runs its course. Editorial, not advice.