How concentrated are Polymarket profits?
By the Cent Signals editorial desk. Reviewed June 17, 2026.
As of Jun 17, 2026, of the 300 most active Polymarket wallets Cent Signals scores against their public positions, 27% were net positive on realized profit, and the five most profitable held about 43% of all the positive realized profit in that set. The shape is concentration: a small group holds most of the gains. This is an observation of public data, not advice and not a prediction.
The numbers, as of Jun 17, 2026
The scored set is the most active large-notional wallets in the public trade history we mirror. “Net positive” is the share of those wallets whose realized profit, as reported by Polymarket over the positions we can currently see, is above zero. “Top 5 share of gains” is how much of all the positive realized profit in the set the five most profitable wallets hold. “Longshot-heavy” is the share that entered at least half their mirrored notional at extreme prices.
What the shape shows
Realized profit on Polymarket is not spread evenly. A small group of wallets holds most of the gains, while a large share of even the most active accounts sit at or below break-even. This matches the published research: a study of 67 billion dollars of Polymarket volume found the top 1 percent of users captured about 76.5 percent of all gains and roughly 69 percent of users ended with a loss. Our scored sample is far smaller and only covers active wallets, but it shows the same concentrated shape. Who actually wins on Polymarket sets out the full findings.
The research also found that transacted volume is not the same as skill, and that the wallets earning the spread as liquidity providers tend to do better than those taking it. So a high ranking on traded volume does not imply profit, which is why we surface realized profit separately on the realized-profit leaderboard.
How we measure this
We score the most active large-notional wallets in the public trade history we mirror, reading each wallet's realized profit as reported by Polymarket over its currently visible positions. The figures are partial: they cover only the wallets we score, reflect positions visible at scoring time rather than a full lifetime history, and are measured over a rolling recent window. They refresh when we rescore, and every figure on this page is stamped with the date it was measured. For the full method and its limits, see the methodology. This is editorial observation of public data, not advice.
Frequently asked questions
Are most active Polymarket wallets profitable?
No. Among the most active large-notional wallets Cent Signals scores against their public positions, only a minority show positive realized profit at any given time. This mirrors academic work on the full platform, which found roughly 69 percent of all users ended a multi-year sample with a loss. The figures on this page are dated and cover only the wallets we score, not every account.
How concentrated are the gains?
Highly. A small number of wallets hold a large share of all the positive realized profit in the scored set, with the top five alone holding a substantial fraction. A study of 67 billion dollars of Polymarket volume found the top 1 percent of users captured about 76.5 percent of all gains, and our scored sample shows the same concentrated shape.
What does the longshot-heavy figure mean?
It is the share of scored wallets that entered at least half of their mirrored trade notional at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents. The favorite-longshot literature associates heavy extreme-price exposure with weaker outcomes. We report it as a neutral descriptor of behavior, not a judgment or a prediction.
Is this a prediction of who will profit next?
No. Every figure here is a record of realized profit as reported by Polymarket over positions we can currently see. It is partial, it covers only the wallets we score, and past results say nothing about future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.
Related reading
This guide is editorial reference about publicly available Polymarket data. It is not financial advice, a tip, or a recommendation to take any position, and Cent Signals does not facilitate trades. For how the figures are collected, see the methodology page.