Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

How to read this page

This page is a snapshot of public Polymarket data for the question "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?". The YES price of 4.0¢ reads as the market's implied probability of the outcome, so YES at 4.0¢ corresponds to roughly 4% implied chance as of the latest snapshot. The NO price of 96.0¢ is the complementary side. These are observations of how the crowd is currently pricing the question, not a forecast from Cent Signals.

The figures sit in context. Traded volume of $109.1K is active, and book liquidity of $48.8K is thin, which is worth noting because a price carries more information when more activity stands behind it. The market resolves in 209 days, and prices tend to drift toward zero or one dollar as a resolution date approaches and uncertainty collapses.

This market also carries an editorial note because its current price of 4.0¢ sits 1.0¢ away from a simple sanity heuristic mark of 5.0¢. That gap is the reason the page flags the question as worth a second look. The heuristic does not model the underlying event; it only notes when the public figures sit oddly together.

1. Read the YES and NO prices as probabilities. Treat the YES price of 4.0¢ as the market's implied chance of the outcome, and the NO price of 96.0¢ as the complementary chance. A price in cents reads directly as an implied percentage.
2. Weigh the volume and liquidity behind the price. Check that active volume of $109.1K and thin liquidity of $48.8K stand behind the number. A thinly traded market can show a price a single small order would move, so give it less weight.
3. Read the price against the resolution date. Note that the market resolves in 209 days. A price still well inside the range with resolution close at hand is read together with the calendar, since prices tend to settle toward zero or one near the end.
4. Form your own view from the public data. Read the question, the figures, and any editorial note together, then decide for yourself what, if anything, the numbers describe. Nothing here directs an action.

How these figures are derived

The pricing, volume, and liquidity on this page come from Polymarket's public Gamma API, and the tracked-wallet positions come from Polymarket's public data API. Neither requires authentication, because both surface information that is already public, much of it settling on a public blockchain.

The site renders from a periodic snapshot rather than querying live on every view, so every figure here is as of the most recent snapshot and may already differ from the live platform. The "a deep-tail" framing of the YES price and any editorial note are plain descriptions of the public figures, never a valuation of the underlying event. See the methodology page for the full detail.

For the full detail on sources and limits, see the methodology page.

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