MisTKy
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No$64.4K$1.2K
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No$23.5K$1.2K
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No$19.9K$85
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026No$19.9K$960
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$16.6K$-5.5K
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$16.2K$5.0K
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No$10.4K$65
- Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?No$7.2K$38
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No$6.9K$40
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30?No$6.1K$180
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No$5.3K$27
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No$4.2K$277
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?No$3.1K$244
- Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?No$2.4K$488
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$2.1K$178
- Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?No$1.4K$294
- Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No$984$22
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No$885$5
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?No$866$46
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No$836$-30
- Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?No$627$4
- Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?No$626$67
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes$600$-122
- Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No$566$67
- Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?No$510$134
- Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?No$508$26
- UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?No$473$53
- Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?No$467$2
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?No$433$-0
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No$373$0
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?No$301$15
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No$289$-71
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No$230$13
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No$167$-4
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes$137$7
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Yes$128$16
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes$84$-39
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No$21$0
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No$18$4
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Yes$12$-3
- UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?No$7$1
- Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by September 30, 2026?Yes$5$-21
- Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?No$4$1
- Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?No$4$-5
- Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?No$3$0
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes$1$-3
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026?Yes$0$0
- Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)No$0$-1
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
- 37d agoBought Yes$1.8K@ 50.0¢
- 38d agoSold Yes$462@ 50.0¢
- 38d agoBought Yes$624@ 77.0¢
- 39d agoBought Yes$1.4K@ 75.0¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$955@ 33.0¢
- 39d agoBought Yes$555@ 32.3¢
- 39d agoBought Yes$502@ 60.6¢
- 39d agoBought Yes$262@ 59.8¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$6.1K@ 95.9¢
- 40d agoSold Yes$315@ 93.8¢
- 40d agoSold Yes$734@ 33.0¢
- 40d agoBought Yes$2.4K@ 73.0¢
- 40d agoBought No$4.9K@ 96.4¢
- 40d agoBought No$2.1K@ 96.1¢
- 44d agoBought No$527@ 31.0¢
- 45d agoSold No$2.1K@ 64.0¢
- 45d agoSold Yes$2.1K@ 98.2¢
- 45d agoSold No$134@ 71.0¢
- 45d agoBought No$2.6K@ 65.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$5.1K@ 85.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$891@ 64.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$1.8K@ 63.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$2.0K@ 88.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$3.1K@ 87.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$1.6K@ 57.9¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.