Naive-War-Warming
Volume reflects the latest curated snapshot. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles$195$67
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?No$170$17
- Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Yes$170$-7
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No$157$39
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No$137$2
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies$136$48
- Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No$121$-18
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No$119$4
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes$119$-1
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No$107$-1
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles$106$55
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?No$106$-1
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos TsitsipasStefanos Tsitsipas$93$1
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No$91$-9
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No$91$-70
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No$89$9
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes$80$-11
- Will Ken Martin cease to be DNC Chair by July 31, 2026?No$78$-5
- Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No$78$-3
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No$77$-2
- Will Trump say "No No No" this week?Yes$70$18
- Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?Yes$69$22
- LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise GroupBNK FEARX$68$-2
- Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?No$67$-33
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets$64$31
- Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No$62$7
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No$59$7
- Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?No$59$-1
- Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No$58$16
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?No$49$2
- Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes$49$15
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No$48$0
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes$44$-1
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No$43$-33
- Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Yes$40$0
- Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange?Yes$36$-1
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes$35$-16
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over$34$-0
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?No$33$0
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$32$-0
- Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts?Yes$28$-2
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?No$28$2
- Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?Yes$28$2
- Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes$27$2
- Cincinnati Reds winning after 5 innings?Yes$26$-0
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?Yes$23$7
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes$23$-6
- Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?Yes$22$6
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?Yes$19$0
- Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?Yes$18$-0
- Will Otto Lopez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?No$18$1
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?Yes$18$5
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes$17$-0
- FC Midtjylland vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5Under$17$-1
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$16$1
- Halle Berry as Storm?No$16$1
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes$16$1
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants$15$-0
- Tom Holland as Spider-Man?No$15$-2
- Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?Yes$14$-2
- Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?Yes$14$-0
- Will Trump say "Six Seven" in July?Yes$13$5
- Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?No$13$2
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians$12$1
- Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?No$12$-4
- Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp?No$11$2
- Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?No$10$-9
- Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?Yes$10$-0
- Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?Yes$9$-0
- Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Yes$9$0
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Yes$9$-14
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsAthletics$8$-0
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No$8$0
- Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?No$8$1
- Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?Yes$8$-0
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No$7$-15
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Yes$7$3
- Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes$7$-34
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen ZhengAlexandra Eala$6$-0
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend GroupHanwha Life Esports$6$0
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under$6$-0
- Will Terri DeBoer be the MI-03 Republican nominee?Yes$6$1
- Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina in 2026?Yes$5$-1
- Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Yes$5$3
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates$4$1
- Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?No$4$0
- Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?No$4$-3
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-08-01?No$4$-1
- Will GKS GieKSa Katowice win on 2026-07-30?Yes$4$-0
- Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Yes$3$0
- Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?Yes$3$-1
- Will Qairat FK win on 2026-07-29?Yes$2$-0
- Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No$2$1
- Benedict Wong as Wong?No$2$0
- Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani by July 31?Yes$2$-0
- Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?Yes$1$0
- Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Yes$0$-3
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over$0$-3
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsAtlanta Braves$0$-9
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?Yes$0$-56
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
- No mirrored trades for this wallet yet. We accumulate public trade history over time, so this may fill in later.
How to read this page
This page describes the public Polymarket activity for the wallet Naive-War-Warming. The headline figures are $107 of traded volume, 23 currently visible open positions, and a naive realized profit-and-loss estimate of $-141. Each figure is read straight from public on-chain and public-API records that anyone could query.
Traded volume of $107 is light and is simply a measure of how much activity the address has moved through the platform. It does not imply skill or endorsement. The realized figure of $-141 is negative and is a naive estimate from the public data, with a 30% win rate across resolved positions. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes.
The open-positions table lists the 23 markets where this wallet currently holds a visible position, with the side, size, and current mark for each. Every row links through to that market's own page, where the same price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are activity to observe, not a model to follow.
- Read traded volume as activity, not skill. Take the $107 of traded volume as a measure of how much the wallet has moved through Polymarket. A high figure means the address has been active at scale; it does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results.
- Treat the profit-and-loss figure as a naive estimate. The realized figure of $-141 is a naive estimate derived from public data and is negative. It is described where the public records expose it and carries no guarantee of accuracy.
- Open the positions for context. Use the positions table to see which markets the wallet currently sits in. Each row links to that market's page, where the price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are public activity to observe.
- Keep it as observation. Read the figures as a description of what a public address has done, and form your own view. Nothing on this page directs an action or follows a wallet.
How these figures are derived
Volume, the open-position count, and the realized profit-and-loss estimate are read from Polymarket's public data API and the public chain. We identify the wallet only by its public address and any display name Polymarket itself has already published, and we do not tie an address to a real-world person.
The realized figure of $-141 is a deliberately naive estimate, not an audited result, and the win rate is shown only where the public data exposes it. The page renders from a periodic snapshot, so the 23 visible positions and the $107 of volume are as of the most recent pull and may already differ from the live platform.
For the full detail on sources and limits, see the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
What does the $107 traded volume for this wallet mean?
It is a measure of how much activity this public Polymarket address has moved through the platform, read from public records. A light figure means the wallet has been active at scale. It does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results, and it is shown as an observation rather than guidance.
How is the realized profit-and-loss figure calculated?
The $-141 figure is a naive realized estimate derived from the wallet's public trade and position data, currently negative. It is not an audited result and carries no guarantee of accuracy. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes, and the figure is reported only to describe what the public data shows.
How current are the positions shown here?
They are as of the latest snapshot of Polymarket's public data, not the current second. The 23 visible positions and the $107 of traded volume can already differ from the live platform, since activity on Polymarket moves continuously.
Can I follow or copy this wallet from Cent Signals?
No. Cent Signals is editorial and read-only. There is no copy-trade feature, order routing, wallet connection, or fund custody here. The wallet's activity is shown as public on-chain data to observe, and nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Compiled by the Cent Signals editorial desk. Reviewed June 3, 2026.
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.