aenews2
0x44c1…ebc1View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$232.2K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
0
Open P&L (est.)
$-95.0K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$250.5K
Hit rate (resolved)
7%
Resolved positions
128
Longshot exposure
59%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes$25.2K$6.2K
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes$24.2K$-22.9K
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes$10.1K$1.0K
- Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Yes$8.2K$1.3K
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes$7.1K$875
- Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?No$4.9K$122
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes$3.0K$-32
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes$2.1K$-402
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes$2.0K$-3.0K
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes$1.9K$-5.0K
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No$1.8K$-2.1K
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes$1.6K$-32
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes$1.6K$539
- Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?No$1.5K$65
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?Yes$913$-347
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes$911$59
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes$908$-517
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes$848$-1.6K
- Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes$793$516
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes$607$-1.9K
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No$531$63
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes$435$-1.3K
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Yes$417$-913
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes$338$-1.6K
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Yes$317$-681
- Will Donald Trump visit Alabama in 2026?Yes$302$53
- Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Yes$267$-396
- Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Yes$258$-232
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes$256$-6.0K
- Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Yes$255$-139
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes$232$-339
- Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes$206$73
- Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?No$165$-17
- Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes$139$-195
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes$137$-46
- Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?No$120$0
- Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?No$119$8
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes$114$7
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Yes$108$-171
- Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Yes$107$-67
- Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Yes$94$-140
- X banned in any European country by December 31?Yes$85$-144
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes$82$-94
- Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?Yes$81$-97
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes$73$-616
- Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?No$66$-8
- Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Yes$56$-59
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No$52$11
- Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Yes$49$-113
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No$47$7
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes$44$-123
- Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?Yes$43$2
- Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?Yes$38$-31
- Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Yes$32$-27
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes$26$-81
- Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?No$23$0
- Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?No$20$4
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes$16$-159
- Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Yes$15$4
- Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes$15$-0
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes$12$2
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?Yes$10$-14
- Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?Yes$9$-5
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by September 30?Yes$9$-3
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?Yes$7$-9
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes$4$-2
- Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Yes$4$0
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Yes$3$-1
- Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Yes$1$0
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes$1$-5
- Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes$1$-1
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Yes$0$-1
- Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes$0$0
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No$0$-1
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 13, 2026?No$0$-20
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?Yes$0$-13.6K
- Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?No$0$-1.7K
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?Yes$0$-6.1K
- Will Trump say "Ballroom" this week?Yes$0$-310
- Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No$0$-14.6K
- Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Yes$0$-1
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes$0$-746
- Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?Yes$0$-985
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes$0$-6.9K
- Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?Yes$0$-10
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes$0$-53
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Yes$0$-958
- Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?Yes$0$-12
- NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?Yes$0$-1
- Will Donald Trump announce Sean O'Brien as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes$0$0
- Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Yes$0$-3.6K
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes$0$-40
- Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes$0$-8
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?No$0$-221
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No$0$-4.3K
- Will Donald Trump announce Patrick Pizzella as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes$0$0
- Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?Yes$0$-4
- Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Yes$0$-8
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?Yes$0$-4
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Yes$0$-2
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 44d agoBought No$223@ 30.0¢
- 44d agoBought Yes$3.6K@ 29.7¢
- 45d agoBought Yes$22.1K@ 99.9¢
- 45d agoBought No$146@ 84.5¢
- 45d agoBought No$129@ 91.0¢
- 46d agoBought Yes$645@ 61.0¢
- 49d agoBought Yes$940@ 99.7¢
- 49d agoBought Yes$104@ 99.8¢
- 52d agoClub Nacional de Football vs. CA Progreso: Both Teams to Score AND Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-07-24?Bought$298@ 90.0¢
- 52d agoClub Nacional de Football vs. CA Progreso: O/U 5.5 AND Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-07-24?Bought$2.0K@ 90.0¢
- 52d agoClub Nacional de Football vs. CA Progreso: O/U 5.5 AND Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-07-24?Bought$2.0K@ 90.0¢
- 54d agoBought Yes$220@ 67.8¢
- 54d agoBought Yes$141@ 48.9¢
- 55d agoBought Yes$69.4K@ 18.5¢
- 55d agoBought No$20.0K@ 99.9¢
- 55d agoBought No$20.0K@ 99.9¢
- 55d agoBought No$20.1K@ 99.9¢
- 55d agoBought No$19.9K@ 99.7¢
- 55d agoBought No$10.0K@ 99.1¢
- 56d agoBought No$23.8K@ 66.9¢
- 56d agoBought No$7.7K@ 77.0¢
- 57d agoBought No$5.6K@ 17.4¢
- 64d agoBought Yes$345@ 51.0¢
- 64d agoSold No$2.5K@ 94.8¢
- 66d agoBought Yes$222@ 63.5¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.