balthazar
0x5a21…9318View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$73.5K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
132
Open P&L (est.)
$49.1K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$50.1K
Hit rate (resolved)
100%
Resolved positions
69
Longshot exposure
66%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes$11.5K$78
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes$11.2K$4.5K
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes$10.2K$-1.6K
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes$7.6K$-64
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes$7.4K$1.4K
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No$5.6K$2.9K
- Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?No$5.5K$43
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?Yes$5.3K$4.6K
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes$5.1K$1.5K
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes$4.5K$378
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No$3.5K$338
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes$3.3K$663
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?No$3.1K$392
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?No$2.8K$45
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes$2.7K$24
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?No$2.6K$288
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes$2.6K$1.5K
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes$2.4K$755
- GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Yes$2.4K$381
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes$2.2K$210
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No$2.1K$-394
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes$2.1K$1.9K
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes$2.1K$2.0K
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?Yes$2.0K$635
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No$2.0K$17
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No$1.9K$1.3K
- Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?No$1.8K$99
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?No$1.7K$18
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes$1.7K$469
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No$1.6K$110
- Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?Yes$1.6K$557
- Will Solana dip to $10 in June?No$1.6K$15
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes$1.6K$1.5K
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?No$1.6K$475
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes$1.5K$1.5K
- Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?Yes$1.5K$823
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes$1.5K$1.4K
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes$1.5K$-1.1K
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in June?No$1.4K$10
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No$1.4K$64
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes$1.4K$1.4K
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No$1.3K$147
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?No$1.3K$13
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?No$1.3K$250
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?Yes$1.3K$263
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?Yes$1.2K$990
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?Yes$1.2K$490
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes$1.2K$363
- Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.2K$6
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?No$1.1K$36
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Yes$1.1K$4
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19?Yes$1.1K$-9
- Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?Yes$1.1K$53
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?No$1.1K$119
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?Yes$1.1K$836
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes$1.0K$127
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No$1.0K$-10
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes$1.0K$892
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?No$1.0K$46
- Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?Yes$1.0K$486
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes$1.0K$968
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes$1.0K$667
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?Yes$998$298
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?Yes$988$36
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes$942$-29
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June?No$899$11
- Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?No$898$2
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?Yes$864$820
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?No$844$9
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No$841$34
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No$836$22
- Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes$809$525
- Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m?Yes$801$568
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes$795$751
- Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI?Yes$793$725
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes$782$7
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19?No$780$-14
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes$759$724
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No$754$172
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes$727$-181
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes$727$137
- Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes$717$680
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day 5?Yes$693$543
- Canada to score first vs. Qatar?Yes$689$389
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yes$683$109
- Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan?Yes$662$362
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?Yes$659$543
- Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Yes$653$588
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes$631$445
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June?No$628$6
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes$621$605
- Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Yes$621$605
- Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes$620$503
- Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Yes$611$546
- Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina?Yes$608$158
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Chicago White Sox$605$173
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes$604$536
- Will Solana reach $160 in June?No$599$6
- Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?Yes$598$-102
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?No$596$50
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 3h agoBought No$146@ 76.9¢
- 3h agoBought No$160@ 84.0¢
- 4h agoSold Yes$106@ 53.2¢
- 6h agoBought Yes$797@ 99.6¢
- 7h agoBought No$101@ 98.7¢
- 7h agoSold Yes$124@ 31.0¢
- 8h agoBought Over$104@ 52.2¢
- 8h agoBought Yes$184@ 87.6¢
- 8h agoBought Yes$184@ 87.4¢
- 11h agoBought No$180@ 66.6¢
- 19h agoBought No$950@ 97.9¢
- 19h agoBought No$778@ 97.2¢
- 19h agoBought No$195@ 97.7¢
- 19h agoBought No$1.4K@ 97.3¢
- 20h agoBought No$198@ 99.2¢
- 20h agoBought No$198@ 98.9¢
- 20h agoBought No$151@ 75.3¢
- 22h agoBought Yes$109@ 52.0¢
- 30h agoBought No$593@ 98.9¢
- 30h agoBought No$597@ 99.5¢
- 30h agoBought No$598@ 99.7¢
- 30h agoBought No$589@ 98.2¢
- 2d agoSold Yes$199@ 50.0¢
- 3d agoBought Yes$359@ 38.2¢
- 3d agoBought Yes$247@ 94.0¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.