Sparse-Cookie
Volume reflects the latest curated snapshot. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes$26.6K$4.9K
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes$12.3K$955
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Yes$10.2K$3.2K
- Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Yes$8.9K$256
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes$7.8K$742
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No$7.4K$1.9K
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$6.8K$-92
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Yes$6.3K$1.4K
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?No$6.3K$559
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?No$4.6K$104
- Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?Yes$3.8K$26
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$3.0K$131
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on September 15?Yes$2.8K$2.4K
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No$2.5K$725
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes$2.4K$-954
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes$2.2K$606
- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes$2.1K$118
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No$2.0K$-307
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No$1.9K$-27
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.9K$765
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes$1.6K$1.6K
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No$1.6K$341
- Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Yes$1.6K$1.5K
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes$1.5K$815
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes$1.4K$325
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No$1.4K$147
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes$1.4K$1.4K
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes$1.4K$767
- Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?No$1.4K$175
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Yes$1.4K$109
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes$1.4K$65
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes$1.4K$683
- Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes$1.4K$77
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes$1.3K$1.3K
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Yes$1.3K$503
- Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes$1.3K$1.3K
- Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.3K$22
- Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Yes$1.2K$1.2K
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.2K$-249
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$1.2K$1.1K
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?No$1.1K$285
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Yes$1.1K$681
- Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Yes$1.1K$15
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$1.1K$1.0K
- Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?Yes$1.0K$978
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?No$1.0K$122
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes$998$-215
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes$986$876
- Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes$984$918
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?No$981$21
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?No$976$10
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes$969$-1.1K
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?No$958$445
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No$950$80
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?Yes$935$19
- Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Yes$920$870
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$914$848
- Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?Yes$907$600
- Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?No$898$-55
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes$878$391
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on September 16?Yes$872$681
- Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?No$869$3
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No$865$740
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Yes$858$21
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No$851$-3.6K
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in September?No$849$66
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?No$825$57
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Yes$817$423
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes$791$174
- Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI?Yes$787$718
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes$762$562
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Yes$760$615
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes$729$28
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No$727$280
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes$714$694
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 15, 2026?Yes$713$631
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No$713$155
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$713$661
- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes?Yes$701$523
- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes$700$600
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes$700$680
- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?Yes$695$520
- Will "The Gentlemen: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?Yes$695$645
- Will the Centre Party (C) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes$695$676
- Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?Yes$695$520
- Will "Instadocs: The Decoy Plane" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Yes$694$644
- Will "Those Who Wish Me Dead" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Yes$693$623
- Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?Yes$693$518
- Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Yes$691$621
- Will "The Whisper Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Yes$691$621
- Will My Alnebratt be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?Yes$690$669
- Will "Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes$690$640
- Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Yes$690$620
- Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes$689$669
- Will Green Party (MP) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?Yes$688$513
- Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?No$687$-1
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 16, 2026?Yes$686$603
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes$685$-213
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?Yes$684$601
- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by 7-10%?Yes$683$567
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
- 26d agoBought Yes$200@ 50.0¢
- 26d agoSold Yes$315@ 78.8¢
- 26d agoBought Yes$150@ 94.2¢
- 27d agoBought Yes$374@ 75.0¢
- 27d agoBought Yes$632@ 79.0¢
- 27d agoSold Yes$291@ 72.6¢
- 27d agoSold Yes$534@ 92.0¢
- 27d agoBought No$169@ 99.7¢
- 28d agoBought Yes$150@ 75.0¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$149@ 92.2¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 28d agoBought No$193@ 96.5¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 29d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 29d agoBought Yes$138@ 74.9¢
- 29d agoBought No$191@ 99.7¢
- 29d agoBought No$190@ 99.1¢
- 29d agoSold Yes$132@ 66.0¢
- 30d agoBought Yes$151@ 94.8¢
- 30d agoBought No$156@ 97.0¢
How to read this page
This page describes the public Polymarket activity for the wallet Sparse-Cookie. The headline figures are $169 of traded volume, 15 currently visible open positions, and a naive realized profit-and-loss estimate of $4.9K. Each figure is read straight from public on-chain and public-API records that anyone could query.
Traded volume of $169 is light and is simply a measure of how much activity the address has moved through the platform. It does not imply skill or endorsement. The realized figure of $4.9K is positive and is a naive estimate from the public data, with a 80% win rate across resolved positions. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes.
The open-positions table lists the 15 markets where this wallet currently holds a visible position, with the side, size, and current mark for each. Every row links through to that market's own page, where the same price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are activity to observe, not a model to follow.
- Read traded volume as activity, not skill. Take the $169 of traded volume as a measure of how much the wallet has moved through Polymarket. A high figure means the address has been active at scale; it does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results.
- Treat the profit-and-loss figure as a naive estimate. The realized figure of $4.9K is a naive estimate derived from public data and is positive. It is described where the public records expose it and carries no guarantee of accuracy.
- Open the positions for context. Use the positions table to see which markets the wallet currently sits in. Each row links to that market's page, where the price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are public activity to observe.
- Keep it as observation. Read the figures as a description of what a public address has done, and form your own view. Nothing on this page directs an action or follows a wallet.
How these figures are derived
Volume, the open-position count, and the realized profit-and-loss estimate are read from Polymarket's public data API and the public chain. We identify the wallet only by its public address and any display name Polymarket itself has already published, and we do not tie an address to a real-world person.
The realized figure of $4.9K is a deliberately naive estimate, not an audited result, and the win rate is shown only where the public data exposes it. The page renders from a periodic snapshot, so the 15 visible positions and the $169 of volume are as of the most recent pull and may already differ from the live platform.
For the full detail on sources and limits, see the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
What does the $169 traded volume for this wallet mean?
It is a measure of how much activity this public Polymarket address has moved through the platform, read from public records. A light figure means the wallet has been active at scale. It does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results, and it is shown as an observation rather than guidance.
How is the realized profit-and-loss figure calculated?
The $4.9K figure is a naive realized estimate derived from the wallet's public trade and position data, currently positive. It is not an audited result and carries no guarantee of accuracy. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes, and the figure is reported only to describe what the public data shows.
How current are the positions shown here?
They are as of the latest snapshot of Polymarket's public data, not the current second. The 15 visible positions and the $169 of traded volume can already differ from the live platform, since activity on Polymarket moves continuously.
Can I follow or copy this wallet from Cent Signals?
No. Cent Signals is editorial and read-only. There is no copy-trade feature, order routing, wallet connection, or fund custody here. The wallet's activity is shown as public on-chain data to observe, and nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Compiled by the Cent Signals editorial desk. Reviewed June 3, 2026.
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.