Sparse-Cookie
Volume reflects the latest curated snapshot. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes$7.0K$499
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?Yes$4.5K$1.1K
- Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?Yes$3.5K$3.0K
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No$2.3K$-7
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes$2.0K$-212
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No$2.0K$22
- Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?No$1.9K$228
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Yes$1.9K$582
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?No$1.8K$435
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No$1.4K$216
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?Yes$1.3K$663
- Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Yes$1.2K$1.2K
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes$1.2K$829
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes$1.1K$1.1K
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No$1,000$29
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 4?Yes$998$-53
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes$973$932
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes$953$843
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?Yes$912$878
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?No$837$324
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 12, 2026?Yes$818$758
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes$801$79
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes$774$749
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?Yes$763$704
- Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?No$736$8
- Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?No$719$28
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No$681$123
- Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes$679$-0
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes$679$644
- Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI?Yes$676$608
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 20, 2026?Yes$675$616
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 31, 2026?Yes$675$616
- Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Yes$674$605
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes$671$633
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes$666$644
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 27, 2026?Yes$665$606
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes$646$625
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 17, 2026?Yes$641$-310
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 5, 2026?Yes$641$588
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 4?Yes$641$450
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026?Yes$627$568
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 25, 2026?Yes$627$568
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$627$605
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?No$625$24
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes$620$-38
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 28, 2026?Yes$618$558
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 19, 2026?Yes$618$558
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Yes$612$379
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes$606$592
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No$603$-4
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No$599$33
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 13, 2026?Yes$589$530
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 23, 2026?Yes$580$520
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$577$476
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 167m and 172m?Yes$576$276
- Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?Yes$570$454
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes$567$529
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Yes$567$444
- Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes$557$483
- Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?Yes$554$486
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 18, 2026?Yes$551$492
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 7, 2026?Yes$544$491
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 24, 2026?Yes$542$482
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 22, 2026?Yes$542$482
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Chicago White Sox$541$109
- Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?No$538$42
- Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?No$536$0
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No$534$138
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes$534$505
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 26, 2026?Yes$532$473
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Yes$530$370
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 29, 2026?Yes$523$463
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 21, 2026?Yes$523$463
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be at least 152m?Yes$523$435
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026?Yes$522$462
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 4, 2026?Yes$513$454
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 3, 2026?Yes$513$454
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes$498$480
- Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Yes$490$412
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?No$490$-1
- NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?No$489$77
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to August 1, 2026?Yes$485$425
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes$478$427
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes$476$356
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$471$452
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$466$444
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in August?No$463$65
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes$460$440
- Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes$459$342
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?Yes$451$371
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Yes$448$151
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No$441$81
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes$423$237
- Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes$419$396
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 14, 2026?Yes$418$359
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Yes$409$91
- Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?No$399$200
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxAtlanta Braves$391$145
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?No$390$20
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes$379$341
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
- 38m agoBought Yes$281@ 98.0¢
- 38m agoBought No$149@ 99.6¢
- 38m agoBought No$104@ 69.4¢
- 5h agoBought No$330@ 33.0¢
- 15h agoBought No$330@ 20.0¢
- 21h agoBought No$196@ 98.0¢
- 21h agoBought No$493@ 98.5¢
- 21h agoBought No$491@ 98.3¢
- 21h agoBought No$496@ 99.1¢
- 21h agoBought No$205@ 41.0¢
- 23h agoBought No$179@ 99.7¢
- 23h agoBought No$153@ 86.0¢
- 24h agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 25h agoBought Yes$240@ 16.0¢
- 7d agoBought Yes$328@ 82.0¢
- 8d agoBought Yes$957@ 95.7¢
- 8d agoBought Yes$177@ 90.0¢
- 8d agoBought Yes$271@ 90.0¢
- 8d agoSold Yes$122@ 61.0¢
- 8d agoSold Yes$112@ 56.0¢
- 9d agoBought Yes$202@ 45.0¢
- 9d agoBought No$133@ 30.0¢
- 9d agoBought Yes$255@ 85.0¢
- 9d agoBought Yes$171@ 48.9¢
- 9d agoBought Yes$153@ 76.6¢
How to read this page
This page describes the public Polymarket activity for the wallet Sparse-Cookie. The headline figures are $294 of traded volume, 14 currently visible open positions, and a naive realized profit-and-loss estimate of $8.6K. Each figure is read straight from public on-chain and public-API records that anyone could query.
Traded volume of $294 is light and is simply a measure of how much activity the address has moved through the platform. It does not imply skill or endorsement. The realized figure of $8.6K is positive and is a naive estimate from the public data, with a 86% win rate across resolved positions. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes.
The open-positions table lists the 14 markets where this wallet currently holds a visible position, with the side, size, and current mark for each. Every row links through to that market's own page, where the same price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are activity to observe, not a model to follow.
- Read traded volume as activity, not skill. Take the $294 of traded volume as a measure of how much the wallet has moved through Polymarket. A high figure means the address has been active at scale; it does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results.
- Treat the profit-and-loss figure as a naive estimate. The realized figure of $8.6K is a naive estimate derived from public data and is positive. It is described where the public records expose it and carries no guarantee of accuracy.
- Open the positions for context. Use the positions table to see which markets the wallet currently sits in. Each row links to that market's page, where the price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are public activity to observe.
- Keep it as observation. Read the figures as a description of what a public address has done, and form your own view. Nothing on this page directs an action or follows a wallet.
How these figures are derived
Volume, the open-position count, and the realized profit-and-loss estimate are read from Polymarket's public data API and the public chain. We identify the wallet only by its public address and any display name Polymarket itself has already published, and we do not tie an address to a real-world person.
The realized figure of $8.6K is a deliberately naive estimate, not an audited result, and the win rate is shown only where the public data exposes it. The page renders from a periodic snapshot, so the 14 visible positions and the $294 of volume are as of the most recent pull and may already differ from the live platform.
For the full detail on sources and limits, see the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
What does the $294 traded volume for this wallet mean?
It is a measure of how much activity this public Polymarket address has moved through the platform, read from public records. A light figure means the wallet has been active at scale. It does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results, and it is shown as an observation rather than guidance.
How is the realized profit-and-loss figure calculated?
The $8.6K figure is a naive realized estimate derived from the wallet's public trade and position data, currently positive. It is not an audited result and carries no guarantee of accuracy. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes, and the figure is reported only to describe what the public data shows.
How current are the positions shown here?
They are as of the latest snapshot of Polymarket's public data, not the current second. The 14 visible positions and the $294 of traded volume can already differ from the live platform, since activity on Polymarket moves continuously.
Can I follow or copy this wallet from Cent Signals?
No. Cent Signals is editorial and read-only. There is no copy-trade feature, order routing, wallet connection, or fund custody here. The wallet's activity is shown as public on-chain data to observe, and nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Compiled by the Cent Signals editorial desk. Reviewed June 3, 2026.
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.