pako
0x71ed…d338View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$51.5K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
3
Open P&L (est.)
$-72.0K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$15.7K
Hit rate (resolved)
5%
Resolved positions
76
Longshot exposure
97%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No$61.7K$-28.8K
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes$40.0K$-6.9K
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes$19.2K$12.3K
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No$5.1K$1.8K
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No$4.5K$127
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?No$4.2K$879
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes$3.8K$-5.3K
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No$3.7K$-3.9K
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes$3.5K$387
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes$2.5K$-4.3K
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No$2.3K$-444
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes$2.2K$-835
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.2K$-432
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes$1.0K$42
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Yes$992$-8
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No$892$29
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No$869$-131
- Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?No$796$93
- Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?No$724$-201
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Yes$653$-1.2K
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?No$559$-115
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Yes$477$20
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes$258$-59
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?No$253$96
- Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?Yes$236$-243
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes$234$-39
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Yes$157$-47
- Record crypto liquidation in 2026?No$145$20
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?No$145$-2
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?No$139$57
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?No$118$13
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?No$93$1
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No$45$-10
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?No$28$-43
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes$28$5
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes$22$-12
- Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?No$15$-8
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes$14$-31
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes$10$-19
- Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?No$9$1
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No$8$4
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?No$8$-1
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes$8$-2
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes$7$-13
- Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?No$6$0
- Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?No$5$2
- Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Yes$5$-7
- Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No$5$0
- US recession by end of 2026?No$4$1
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes$2$-8
- Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?Yes$2$-4
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$1$0
- Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$1$-1
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No$0$-100
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yes$0$0
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?Yes$0$-1
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August?Yes$0$-10
- Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Yes$0$-4
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?No$0$-189
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3?Up$0$-39
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?No$0$-16
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Yes$0$-6
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?No$0$-2
- Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?Up$0$-6.2K
- Will Poland win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?Yes$0$-1
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July?Yes$0$-387
- Ethereum flipped in 2026?No$0$-16.9K
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?No$0$-6
- Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes$0$-23
- Will Trump's remarks not air?Yes$0$-2
- Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?Yes$0$-4
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Yes$0$-35
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes$0$-4.4K
- Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026?No$0$-148
- Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes$0$-80
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?No$0$-4.0K
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?Yes$0$-17
- Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?Yes$0$-36
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Yes$0$-930
- Bitcoin Up or Down on November 19?Up$0$-110
- US bank failure by January 31?No$0$-99
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Yes$0$-2
- Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation?No$0$-16
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?Yes$0$-7
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Yes$0$-6
- US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?Yes$0$-8
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?No$0$-252
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?Yes$0$-4
- Aster all time high by December 31?Yes$0$-9
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?No$0$-7
- Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?Yes$0$-7
- U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?No$0$-3
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 20?Yes$0$-15
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?No$0$-393
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes$0$-2
- Bitcoin 15%+ daily candle in 2026?No$0$-5
- Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?Yes$0$-143
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?Yes$0$-19
- Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14?Yes$0$-6
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes$0$-20
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 5h agoSold Yes$50.0K@ 99.9¢
- 2d agoBought Yes$1,000@ 56.1¢
- 6d agoBought Yes$536@ 18.0¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.