Car
0x7c3d…5c6bView on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$137.1K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
0
Open P&L (est.)
$-910
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$29.2K
Hit rate (resolved)
33%
Resolved positions
9
Longshot exposure
76%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No$303.0K$103.0K
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$97.0K$-103.0K
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$60.8K$1.3K
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No$23.4K$75
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No$11.4K$230
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No$11.2K$2.4K
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No$9.8K$54
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No$9.0K$50
- Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No$8.3K$98
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No$8.0K$10
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No$7.9K$72
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No$7.8K$242
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No$7.1K$111
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No$6.0K$-2
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No$4.8K$-2
- Trump out as President before 2027?No$4.7K$25
- Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?No$4.6K$-10
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo$4.4K$25
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No$4.3K$-25
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes$4.3K$-25
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No$3.9K$6
- Trump goes to space in 2026?No$3.8K$36
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Yes$3.6K$517
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes$3.5K$-191
- Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?No$3.4K$-12
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No$3.4K$6
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?No$2.9K$47
- Russia coup attempt in 2026?No$2.8K$15
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes$2.8K$-4.1K
- LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes$2.5K$955
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes$2.5K$-2.0K
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No$2.4K$8
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No$2.4K$-32
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Yes$2.3K$644
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Yes$2.3K$164
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Yes$2.3K$169
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?No$2.1K$97
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No$2.1K$46
- LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes$2.1K$69
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No$2.1K$11
- Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?No$2.0K$136
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No$1.9K$21
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No$1.9K$-1
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?No$1.9K$-8
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No$1.9K$-12
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes$1.9K$-294
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No$1.9K$-30
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No$1.8K$100
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No$1.7K$40
- Iran coup attempt by December 31?No$1.7K$-70
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No$1.7K$9
- NATO dissolves before 2027?No$1.6K$86
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$1.4K$-2.1K
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?No$1.4K$33
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$1.3K$525
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes$1.2K$-52
- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?No$1.1K$63
- Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?No$1.1K$36
- Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes$1.1K$11
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes$1.0K$-153
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?Yes$997$105
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No$979$37
- Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?No$955$7
- Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?No$950$50
- US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?No$939$65
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Yes$926$28
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Yes$924$213
- Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No$895$-7
- Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?No$890$66
- Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?No$876$-57
- Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No$846$31
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No$811$37
- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?No$774$31
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No$749$48
- Will Iran legalize gay marriage?No$741$15
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?No$716$-238
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$705$145
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No$700$-4
- Will Elon register any party before 2027?No$673$77
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No$645$-102
- Iran leadership change by October 31?No$635$6
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes$624$-62
- Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?Yes$619$75
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$583$-39
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes$550$-5
- Will Venezuela become 51st state?No$537$24
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?No$535$-778
- Will Donald Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30?No$519$13
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?No$517$25
- Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?No$514$13
- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes$513$-22
- Will Excelsior be relegated from the 2026-27 Eredivisie?No$467$19
- Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2028?No$464$7
- Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?No$451$16
- Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?No$420$164
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes$408$-6
- Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028?No$405$9
- GTA VI released by November 30?Yes$392$35
- Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?No$371$11
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes$371$-412
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 21d agoBought Yes$980@ 98.0¢
- 21d agoBought Yes$3.9K@ 97.8¢
- 22d agoSold Yes$710@ 71.0¢
- 22d agoSold Yes$277@ 0.7¢
- 22d agoBought Yes$1.9K@ 93.0¢
- 23d agoBought Yes$145@ 8.0¢
- 23d agoBought No$778@ 97.3¢
- 23d agoBought No$424@ 94.7¢
- 23d agoSold No$136@ 41.2¢
- 23d agoBought No$933@ 93.3¢
- 23d agoSold Yes$102@ 5.0¢
- 23d agoBought No$472@ 85.0¢
- 24d agoSold No$2.1K@ 57.2¢
- 24d agoBought Yes$172@ 15.0¢
- 24d agoSold No$383@ 87.0¢
- 24d agoSold No$229@ 76.3¢
- 24d agoBought Yes$201@ 7.0¢
- 24d agoBought No$2.1K@ 96.0¢
- 24d agoBought No$5.2K@ 95.4¢
- 24d agoBought No$212@ 64.7¢
- 24d agoSold No$4.6K@ 83.0¢
- 25d agoBought No$4.7K@ 94.0¢
- 25d agoSold Yes$198@ 11.0¢
- 25d agoSold Yes$254@ 3.6¢
- 28d agoSold Yes$338@ 49.3¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.