stupid22
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No$232.6K$-386
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No$159.2K$7.1K
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No$83.7K$698
- Iran leadership change by September 30?No$54.7K$581
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$16.7K$-500
- Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Yes$14.7K$854
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No$11.4K$164
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?No$10.8K$328
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?No$10.7K$298
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$10.1K$2.6K
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo$9.6K$469
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?No$9.5K$203
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?No$9.2K$256
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?No$8.9K$181
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No$7.9K$42
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$7.6K$-2.0K
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No$7.5K$188
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes$7.3K$1.3K
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?No$5.3K$322
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes$5.2K$2.3K
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?No$4.5K$87
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes$4.5K$-385
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes$4.3K$144
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes$3.8K$0
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30?No$3.3K$75
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes$3.0K$-907
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?No$1.7K$-1
- Iran leadership change by October 31?No$1.6K$1
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in September?No$990$49
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 25?Yes$782$-0
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 26?No$602$0
- Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?No$395$-0
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes$190$-30
- Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboNo$136$8
- Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?No$123$13
- Will Hsu Shu-hua win the next Nantou County Magistrate election?Yes$118$1
- Will Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?Yes$113$0
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on September 25?No$81$0
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September?No$32$1
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on September 25?Yes$24$-4.6K
- China coup attempt before 2027?No$5$0
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes$0$-402
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes$0$-39
- Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes$0$-196
- Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?Yes$0$-688
- Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Yes$0$-1
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
- 40d agoBought No$175@ 99.9¢
- 40d agoBought Yes$417@ 99.9¢
- 41d agoBought No$7.0K@ 95.5¢
- 41d agoBought No$4.0K@ 99.3¢
- 43d agoBought No$5.0K@ 98.3¢
- 44d agoBought No$5.7K@ 99.1¢
- 45d agoBought No$2.0K@ 97.3¢
- 45d agoSold Yes$2.2K@ 38.0¢
- 45d agoBought Yes$2.3K@ 99.9¢
- 46d agoBought No$411@ 95.5¢
- 47d agoBought Yes$705@ 99.9¢
- 47d agoBought No$6.0K@ 99.1¢
- 47d agoBought No$427@ 95.5¢
- 47d agoBought No$946@ 95.4¢
- 48d agoBought Yes$473@ 99.9¢
- 48d agoSold No$831@ 95.5¢
- 48d agoSold No$4.0K@ 95.5¢
- 48d agoBought Yes$2.5K@ 99.3¢
- 49d agoBought No$149@ 97.0¢
- 50d agoBought No$181@ 72.6¢
- 50d agoBought No$133@ 59.4¢
- 50d agoBought No$13.0K@ 99.9¢
- 50d agoBought No$1.2K@ 99.7¢
- 51d agoSold No$1.2K@ 97.6¢
- 51d agoBought No$2.5K@ 99.8¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.