Brown-Tragedy
Volume reflects the latest curated snapshot. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
- Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?No$12.1K$595
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes$9.5K$1.5K
- Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?Yes$6.5K$462
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Yes$6.2K$695
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Yes$6.1K$329
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?No$6.1K$471
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Yes$6.0K$134
- Iran full airspace closure by August 31?No$5.4K$831
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Yes$4.9K$-766
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?No$4.7K$897
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No$3.5K$-126
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No$3.3K$804
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes$3.3K$-556
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes$3.1K$33
- Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes$3.0K$115
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes$2.7K$-12
- Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?No$2.7K$565
- Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No$2.6K$344
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?No$2.5K$285
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No$2.5K$522
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?No$2.4K$-620
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Yes$2.3K$152
- Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No$2.3K$428
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?No$2.1K$420
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes$2.1K$106
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$2.1K$16
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No$1.6K$60
- Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Yes$1.4K$8
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes$1.3K$-726
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes$1.2K$-66
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?No$1.0K$-10
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes$998$158
- Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?Yes$960$28
- Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?No$877$-713
- Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No$810$178
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?No$717$17
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?No$668$145
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes$615$14
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes$602$-798
- Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No$580$-57
- Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?No$551$146
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Yes$551$-9
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Yes$535$-3
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?No$529$29
- Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?Yes$499$-1
- Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No$497$-3
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes$484$69
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes$459$-311
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?No$422$72
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Yes$386$-24
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No$374$131
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes$372$-28
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes$360$-508
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No$356$-44
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes$355$-35
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Yes$333$-67
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No$330$30
- Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?No$309$9
- Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes$298$-2
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes$296$-229
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes$281$-19
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Yes$267$-33
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes$253$-47
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?No$208$148
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes$198$-102
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No$185$-28
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes$177$-23
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No$175$1
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes$168$12
- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Yes$148$-73
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes$107$-7
- SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Yes$104$35
- Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes$103$-35
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No$96$-4
- Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?No$94$-6
- Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes$85$-52
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes$75$-65
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No$68$-32
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes$65$-135
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Yes$60$-84
- Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026?Yes$54$-18
- ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?Yes$37$-8
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$37$-23
- Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?Yes$31$-69
- Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Yes$31$-786
- Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes$24$-36
- Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No$23$-601
- Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?No$22$-8
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Yes$21$-279
- Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?Yes$21$-43
- Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?No$21$1
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$19$9
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?Yes$18$-28
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes$17$-3.6K
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$17$-23
- Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?Yes$17$-75
- Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Yes$15$5
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes$14$3
- Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$13$3
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 255M by August 31?No$12$1
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
- No mirrored trades for this wallet yet. We accumulate public trade history over time, so this may fill in later.
How to read this page
This page describes the public Polymarket activity for the wallet Brown-Tragedy. The headline figures are $300 of traded volume, 28 currently visible open positions, and a naive realized profit-and-loss estimate of $6.7K. Each figure is read straight from public on-chain and public-API records that anyone could query.
Traded volume of $300 is light and is simply a measure of how much activity the address has moved through the platform. It does not imply skill or endorsement. The realized figure of $6.7K is positive and is a naive estimate from the public data, with a 75% win rate across resolved positions. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes.
The open-positions table lists the 28 markets where this wallet currently holds a visible position, with the side, size, and current mark for each. Every row links through to that market's own page, where the same price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are activity to observe, not a model to follow.
- Read traded volume as activity, not skill. Take the $300 of traded volume as a measure of how much the wallet has moved through Polymarket. A high figure means the address has been active at scale; it does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results.
- Treat the profit-and-loss figure as a naive estimate. The realized figure of $6.7K is a naive estimate derived from public data and is positive. It is described where the public records expose it and carries no guarantee of accuracy.
- Open the positions for context. Use the positions table to see which markets the wallet currently sits in. Each row links to that market's page, where the price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are public activity to observe.
- Keep it as observation. Read the figures as a description of what a public address has done, and form your own view. Nothing on this page directs an action or follows a wallet.
How these figures are derived
Volume, the open-position count, and the realized profit-and-loss estimate are read from Polymarket's public data API and the public chain. We identify the wallet only by its public address and any display name Polymarket itself has already published, and we do not tie an address to a real-world person.
The realized figure of $6.7K is a deliberately naive estimate, not an audited result, and the win rate is shown only where the public data exposes it. The page renders from a periodic snapshot, so the 28 visible positions and the $300 of volume are as of the most recent pull and may already differ from the live platform.
For the full detail on sources and limits, see the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
What does the $300 traded volume for this wallet mean?
It is a measure of how much activity this public Polymarket address has moved through the platform, read from public records. A light figure means the wallet has been active at scale. It does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results, and it is shown as an observation rather than guidance.
How is the realized profit-and-loss figure calculated?
The $6.7K figure is a naive realized estimate derived from the wallet's public trade and position data, currently positive. It is not an audited result and carries no guarantee of accuracy. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes, and the figure is reported only to describe what the public data shows.
How current are the positions shown here?
They are as of the latest snapshot of Polymarket's public data, not the current second. The 28 visible positions and the $300 of traded volume can already differ from the live platform, since activity on Polymarket moves continuously.
Can I follow or copy this wallet from Cent Signals?
No. Cent Signals is editorial and read-only. There is no copy-trade feature, order routing, wallet connection, or fund custody here. The wallet's activity is shown as public on-chain data to observe, and nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Compiled by the Cent Signals editorial desk. Reviewed June 3, 2026.
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.