ArmageddonRewardsBilly
0xc8ab…6418View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$110.5K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
0
Open P&L (est.)
$151.7K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$-21.3K
Hit rate (resolved)
81%
Resolved positions
21
Longshot exposure
40%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes$732.9K$144.0K
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No$53.0K$18.0K
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No$45.7K$1.9K
- Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No$30.8K$3.8K
- Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No$25.3K$8.9K
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No$22.9K$53
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No$22.5K$2.6K
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$17.0K$-18.0K
- Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes$14.7K$1.6K
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$13.4K$-131
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No$11.7K$640
- Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?Yes$10.7K$-229
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$9.9K$134
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes$9.1K$-4.1K
- Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?No$8.5K$1.2K
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No$8.2K$533
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes$8.0K$-1.0K
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes$7.2K$69
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$7.2K$-368
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes$7.1K$-187
- Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes$6.7K$-3.3K
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?No$6.4K$262
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No$6.4K$-3.3K
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$6.3K$-630
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No$6.2K$64
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$6.2K$40
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$5.1K$639
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No$5.1K$-2
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?No$4.9K$455
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?No$4.8K$32
- Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?No$4.8K$1.1K
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?No$4.7K$33
- Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$4.6K$64
- US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?No$4.6K$-391
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No$4.5K$-220
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$4.4K$5
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$4.3K$23
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No$4.3K$73
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes$4.3K$-159
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No$4.1K$22
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No$4.0K$48
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?No$3.9K$151
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30?No$3.8K$72
- Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes$3.7K$-1.7K
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?No$3.7K$70
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No$3.5K$-80
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes$3.3K$-675
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes$3.3K$-31
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Yes$2.9K$-82
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$2.9K$-578
- Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$2.7K$58
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Yes$2.7K$-14
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No$2.7K$-93
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?No$2.7K$6
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?No$2.5K$-387
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?No$2.5K$74
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?No$2.3K$1
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$2.3K$12
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?No$2.3K$121
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic$2.2K$23
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?No$2.2K$154
- Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$2.1K$195
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$2.1K$69
- Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?No$2.0K$-11
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.125T by September 30?No$2.0K$-7
- Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$2.0K$13
- Iran leadership change by October 31?No$1.9K$10
- LAPTOP FDV above $2B one day after launch?No$1.9K$121
- FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?No$1.8K$-29
- Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?No$1.8K$44
- US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?No$1.8K$-216
- Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?No$1.8K$-50
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes$1.7K$-10
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?No$1.7K$-127
- Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?No$1.6K$393
- Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$1.6K$51
- LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?No$1.6K$38
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?No$1.6K$-30
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$1.6K$57
- Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No$1.5K$35
- Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes$1.5K$-1
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No$1.4K$23
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Yes$1.4K$57
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?No$1.4K$-83
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$1.4K$20
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?No$1.3K$-29
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$1.3K$10
- Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No$1.3K$-25
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No$1.3K$-47
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No$1.3K$8
- Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Yes$1.3K$-1
- Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?No$1.2K$176
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$1.2K$76
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?No$1.1K$66
- Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?No$1.1K$-3
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.275T by September 30?No$1.1K$17
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes$1.0K$-62
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes$998$-79
- Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No$979$-74
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes$970$-130
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 23d agoBought No$511@ 98.7¢
- 34d agoBought Yes$3.6K@ 36.0¢
- 34d agoBought Yes$8.4K@ 35.0¢
- 35d agoSold No$6.4K@ 99.6¢
- 37d agoSold No$60.0K@ 80.7¢
- 37d agoBought No$132@ 51.0¢
- 39d agoSold No$432@ 87.7¢
- 46d agoSold No$4.0K@ 73.5¢
- 46d agoSold No$217@ 88.0¢
- 46d agoSold Yes$155@ 86.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$2.1K@ 94.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$180@ 94.5¢
- 46d agoBought No$213@ 93.7¢
- 46d agoBought No$356@ 97.7¢
- 46d agoBought No$203@ 94.5¢
- 46d agoBought No$277@ 94.1¢
- 46d agoBought No$342@ 96.4¢
- 46d agoBought No$261@ 94.5¢
- 46d agoBought No$544@ 95.7¢
- 46d agoBought No$715@ 95.8¢
- 46d agoBought No$383@ 94.6¢
- 47d agoBought No$647@ 94.5¢
- 47d agoBought No$201@ 95.0¢
- 47d agoBought No$259@ 95.6¢
- 47d agoBought No$394@ 93.3¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.