ArmageddonRewardsBilly
0xc8ab…6418View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$110.5K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
0
Open P&L (est.)
$-22.9K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$-21.3K
Hit rate (resolved)
81%
Resolved positions
21
Longshot exposure
40%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No$167.9K$62.9K
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$42.1K$-62.9K
- Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No$39.2K$1.2K
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes$35.4K$-9.4K
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No$26.7K$-7.7K
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No$25.1K$2.4K
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?No$24.3K$-2.1K
- Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes$24.1K$-5.9K
- Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No$20.3K$7.8K
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?No$12.7K$139
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No$11.6K$6
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No$11.3K$-47
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes$11.0K$-120
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?No$10.3K$-2.6K
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$9.8K$3.5K
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?No$8.6K$250
- Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?Yes$8.3K$-134
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No$7.3K$26
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No$7.3K$-58
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$7.2K$-216
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes$6.1K$135
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?No$5.5K$-116
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?No$5.5K$25
- Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?No$5.5K$-15
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No$5.0K$209
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No$4.8K$-59
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$4.5K$-199
- Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?No$4.5K$16
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$4.4K$75
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes$4.0K$-62
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No$3.8K$28
- Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?No$3.8K$613
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes$3.7K$0
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?No$3.7K$852
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?No$3.7K$-58
- Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes$3.6K$-1.8K
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No$3.2K$-187
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes$2.9K$-2.3K
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?No$2.6K$92
- Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$2.6K$-56
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes$2.5K$-60
- Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?No$2.4K$-22
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No$2.3K$-69
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No$2.3K$-77
- Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Yes$2.2K$-1.5K
- Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$2.2K$-141
- Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Yes$2.2K$150
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$2.1K$-32
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?No$2.0K$66
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?No$2.0K$-154
- Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?No$1.9K$-1.2K
- Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?No$1.9K$3
- Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?No$1.9K$2
- Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?No$1.9K$-118
- France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?No$1.9K$40
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo$1.8K$10
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?No$1.8K$-45
- Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$1.8K$-81
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?No$1.8K$-30
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No$1.8K$10
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes$1.8K$-81
- Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No$1.7K$-95
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?No$1.7K$0
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes$1.7K$-23
- Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Yes$1.6K$0
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes$1.6K$-235
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes$1.6K$-152
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes$1.6K$0
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2027?No$1.6K$-30
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?No$1.5K$-32
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?No$1.5K$-188
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?No$1.5K$-176
- Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No$1.4K$-10
- Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$1.4K$20
- Will Chuang Ching-cheng win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?No$1.3K$-40
- Will Chang Chia-chun win the next Yunlin County Magistrate election?Yes$1.3K$-105
- Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?Yes$1.3K$-93
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No$1.3K$-22
- Will Tung Tzu-wei win the next Keelung Mayor election?No$1.3K$-220
- Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?No$1.2K$-41
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes$1.2K$-120
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?No$1.1K$167
- Will Chen Ying win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?No$1.1K$-166
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No$1.1K$-4
- Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election?Yes$1.1K$-259
- Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?Yes$1.0K$-168
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic$1.0K$-2
- Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?Yes$1.0K$-42
- Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$988$-84
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?No$973$-124
- Will Lauren Boebert resign by October 31, 2026?No$947$-5
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes$929$5
- Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?No$915$5
- Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No$912$16
- Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$908$-4
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$903$-1.6K
- Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No$889$-17
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?No$888$4
- Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?No$872$17
- Will Hsieh Lung-chieh win the next Tainan Mayor election?No$864$30
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 64d agoBought No$511@ 98.7¢
- 75d agoBought Yes$3.6K@ 36.0¢
- 75d agoBought Yes$8.4K@ 35.0¢
- 76d agoSold No$6.4K@ 99.6¢
- 78d agoSold No$60.0K@ 80.7¢
- 78d agoBought No$132@ 51.0¢
- 80d agoSold No$432@ 87.7¢
- 87d agoSold No$4.0K@ 73.5¢
- 87d agoSold No$217@ 88.0¢
- 87d agoSold Yes$155@ 86.0¢
- 87d agoBought No$2.1K@ 94.0¢
- 87d agoBought No$180@ 94.5¢
- 87d agoBought No$213@ 93.7¢
- 87d agoBought No$356@ 97.7¢
- 87d agoBought No$203@ 94.5¢
- 87d agoBought No$277@ 94.1¢
- 87d agoBought No$342@ 96.4¢
- 87d agoBought No$261@ 94.5¢
- 87d agoBought No$544@ 95.7¢
- 87d agoBought No$715@ 95.8¢
- 87d agoBought No$383@ 94.6¢
- 88d agoBought No$647@ 94.5¢
- 88d agoBought No$201@ 95.0¢
- 88d agoBought No$259@ 95.6¢
- 88d agoBought No$394@ 93.3¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.