0x9f2fe025f84839ca81dd8e0338892605702d2ca
0xe234…304aView on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$302.7K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
0
Open P&L (est.)
$-6.1K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$27.7K
Hit rate (resolved)
2%
Resolved positions
85
Longshot exposure
39%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes$25.0K$4.8K
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No$24.8K$3.7K
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$13.6K$2.0K
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?No$9.0K$310
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes$8.1K$-60
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No$7.1K$16
- US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?No$6.1K$168
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes$5.8K$166
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No$5.5K$465
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes$3.6K$-20
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No$3.2K$519
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes$3.2K$-3.1K
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No$3.2K$-438
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$3.0K$-955
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No$3.0K$17
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No$3.0K$423
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No$2.8K$80
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Yes$2.5K$140
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes$2.5K$-330
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes$2.4K$-51
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?No$2.4K$166
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes$2.3K$-288
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No$2.2K$-40
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No$2.2K$435
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?No$2.1K$380
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes$1.9K$203
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes$1.9K$-2
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No$1.7K$949
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes$1.6K$-16
- Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?No$1.4K$34
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes$1.3K$-80
- UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?No$1.2K$26
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?No$997$67
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes$885$15
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No$885$-15
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No$849$134
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yes$838$43
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes$785$-648
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No$601$-28
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes$580$60
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes$570$-1.8K
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?No$550$10
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes$483$-1.2K
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No$476$35
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes$426$-381
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes$400$-731
- Trump renames AI by September 30?Yes$362$-421
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Yes$350$-57
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes$300$-106
- US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Yes$295$-12
- Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?No$280$25
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes$271$-18
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes$248$-6
- Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes$205$-1.9K
- Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?No$185$12
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes$175$-30
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes$140$-350
- Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?No$130$-10
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes$115$-940
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Yes$111$-3
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Yes$89$-382
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?No$65$-405
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?No$64$3
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes$52$-22
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes$42$-32
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Yes$39$6
- Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?Yes$21$-194
- Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$19$-149
- Will Valve officially release Deadlock before 2027?No$18$13
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No$17$-36
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$15$-312
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes$13$-12
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$12$-238
- Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes$11$-7
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Yes$11$-48
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?Yes$9$9
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes$9$-25
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes$9$-0
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Yes$9$-211
- Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$5$-242
- Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes$5$-328
- Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes$5$-328
- Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes$5$-328
- Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes$5$-328
- Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes$5$-328
- Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes$4$-14
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$4$-246
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 38d agoBought No$458@ 81.4¢
- 38d agoBought Yes$2.3K@ 29.0¢
- 40d agoBought Yes$124@ 12.4¢
- 40d agoBought Yes$234@ 11.7¢
- 41d agoBought No$2.3K@ 58.0¢
- 41d agoSold Yes$275@ 1.1¢
- 41d agoSold Yes$700@ 10.0¢
- 41d agoBought No$3.4K@ 56.0¢
- 42d agoBought No$297@ 99.0¢
- 42d agoBought No$2.2K@ 99.8¢
- 42d agoSold Yes$229@ 9.0¢
- 42d agoSold Yes$170@ 1.7¢
- 42d agoBought Yes$100@ 2.0¢
- 43d agoSold Yes$596@ 21.0¢
- 44d agoBought Yes$384@ 30.0¢
- 44d agoBought Yes$496@ 21.4¢
- 44d agoBought Yes$320@ 16.0¢
- 44d agoBought Yes$1.3K@ 16.0¢
- 44d agoBought Yes$460@ 21.0¢
- 44d agoSold Yes$200@ 4.0¢
- 44d agoSold Yes$531@ 4.5¢
- 45d agoBought Yes$869@ 86.9¢
- 45d agoSold Yes$1.9K@ 18.0¢
- 45d agoBought Yes$310@ 2.0¢
- 46d agoBought No$929@ 92.9¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.