0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451
0xfc2f…10c7View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$50.6K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
2
Open P&L (est.)
$-55.4K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$125.7K
Hit rate (resolved)
0%
Resolved positions
447
Longshot exposure
22%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes$6.3K$-1.6K
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No$4.6K$223
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Yes$4.4K$-147
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Yes$4.2K$546
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No$1.6K$432
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No$1.1K$96
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No$729$138
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?No$724$276
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No$688$71
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No$637$225
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Yes$507$-302
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Yes$453$41
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?Yes$407$-733
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?No$271$188
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Yes$261$-43
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?No$239$16
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes$236$98
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Yes$236$-58
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?No$230$61
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No$213$46
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Yes$212$24
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Yes$179$-11
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No$168$48
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes$165$29
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No$151$51
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No$144$27
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Yes$141$-129
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No$125$23
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes$106$-13
- Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No$102$82
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No$100$20
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No$94$39
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Yes$91$-281
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?No$89$11
- Iran full airspace closure by August 31?No$79$23
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No$74$22
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?Yes$67$-134
- Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes$62$-2.6K
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No$59$26
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?No$57$13
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?Yes$48$-163
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No$47$21
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?Yes$46$-165
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?Yes$42$-169
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No$41$10
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No$35$-67
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?Yes$32$-179
- Iran leadership change by July 31?Yes$28$-2.8K
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Yes$28$-183
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Yes$28$-183
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?Yes$28$-183
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No$25$19
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Yes$24$-187
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?Yes$20$-191
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No$20$7
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?No$17$-5.4K
- Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No$14$4
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?Yes$10$-201
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No$10$1
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes$10$-254
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes$9$-944
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Yes$7$-21
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Yes$5$-184
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?Yes$2$-209
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?Yes$2$-209
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?Yes$2$-209
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes$2$1
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Yes$0$-14
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes$0$-84
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes$0$-135
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes$0$-9
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No$0$-11
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes$0$-64
- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?Yes$0$-1
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Yes$0$-34
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes$0$-7
- Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes$0$-40
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Yes$0$-2
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?Yes$0$-638
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes$0$-8
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?Yes$0$-258
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No$0$-2.6K
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?Yes$0$-993
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Yes$0$-108
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Yes$0$-214
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No$0$-14.6K
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Yes$0$-7
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?Yes$0$-428
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?Yes$0$-41
- Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?Yes$0$-884
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?No$0$-1.9K
- Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Yes$0$-17
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?Yes$0$-772
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?No$0$-448
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes$0$-335
- Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes$0$-18
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Yes$0$-7.4K
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?No$0$-3.1K
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Yes$0$-234
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?No$0$-4.7K
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 1h agoSold Yes$588@ 84.0¢
- 6d agoBought No$122@ 4.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$220@ 11.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$7.6K@ 15.3¢
- 7d agoBought Yes$394@ 5.1¢
- 7d agoBought Yes$9.0K@ 30.0¢
- 10d agoBought Yes$484@ 9.7¢
- 12d agoSold Yes$5.2K@ 76.9¢
- 12d agoBought Yes$362@ 11.3¢
- 13d agoBought Yes$825@ 78.0¢
- 13d agoSold Yes$1.4K@ 80.0¢
- 13d agoSold Yes$377@ 4.2¢
- 13d agoSold Yes$2.9K@ 84.0¢
- 13d agoBought No$1.8K@ 50.2¢
- 13d agoBought No$247@ 65.0¢
- 13d agoSold No$4.0K@ 81.0¢
- 14d agoSold Yes$224@ 2.8¢
- 14d agoBought No$4.6K@ 91.7¢
- 21d agoBought Yes$255@ 27.0¢
- 22d agoSold No$721@ 57.0¢
- 22d agoBought Yes$4.0K@ 26.8¢
- 23d agoBought No$856@ 82.0¢
- 23d agoBought No$1.6K@ 88.4¢
- 23d agoSold No$1.1K@ 54.0¢
- 23d agoSold Yes$144@ 9.0¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.